DP Math AI · HL · Statistics and Probability

AHL 4.16—Confidence intervals

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  1. Question 1

    A random sample of 40 batteries has a known population standard deviation of σ=3.5 hours. The sample mean lifetime is xˉ=120 hours. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the true mean battery lifetime.
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    Correct answerCorrect!Incorrect
    A(119.09,120.91)

    Step-by-step walkthrough

    Choose a solution method

    Method #1Worked solution

    Step 1: Determine distribution

    Since σ is known, use the z-distribution. For 90% confidence, zα/2​=1.645.

    Step 2: Standard error

    n​σ​=40​3.5​≈0.5534.

    Step 3: Margin of error

    E=1.645×0.5534≈0.910.

    Step 4: Construct interval

    120±0.910⟹(119.09,120.91).

    Step 5: Conclusion

    We are 90% confident the true mean battery lifetime lies between 119.09 and 120.91 hours.

    Method #2Why the others are wrong

    Step 1: Option B

    Uses z=1.96 (the 95% critical value) instead of 1.645 for 90% confidence.

    Step 2: Option C

    Uses z=2.576 (the 99% critical value) instead of the correct 90% value.

    Step 3: Option D

    Incorrectly divides σ by n instead of n​, giving too small a margin of error.

    Step 4: Correct choice

    Only option A uses the correct critical value and standard error calculation.

  2. Question 2

    A sample of 15 measurements from a normally distributed population gives xˉ=34.0 and sample standard deviation s=5.2. What are the correct degrees of freedom to use when finding the t-critical value for a confidence interval?
    No clue? Show me the answer
    Correct answerCorrect!Incorrect
    B14

    Step-by-step walkthrough

    Choose a solution method

    Method #1Worked solution

    Step 1: Recall formula

    Degrees of freedom for a t-interval are ν=n−1.

    Step 2: Substitute

    Here n=15, so ν=15−1.

    Step 3: Compute

    ν=14.

    Step 4: Conclusion

    The correct degrees of freedom is 14.

    Method #2Why the others are wrong

    Step 1: Option B

    Using ν=n=15 ignores the requirement to subtract 1 for estimating μ.

    Step 2: Option C

    Adds 1 instead of subtracting 1, a sign error.

    Step 3: Option D

    Subtracts 2 instead of 1, an over-correction.

    Step 4: Correct choice

    Only ν=n−1=14 matches the definition.

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← Previous topicAHL 4.15—Central limit theoremNext topic →AHL 4.17—Poisson distribution
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