DP Math AI · HL · Statistics and Probability · Updated

AHL 4.18—T and Z test, type I and II errors

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Introduction to Critical Values and Critical Regions

When we conduct a hypothesis test, we need a principled way to decide when our evidence is strong enough to reject the null hypothesis . This is where critical values and critical regions come in.

Critical Value

A critical value is a threshold value that marks the boundary of the critical region. It is determined by the chosen significance level and whether the test is one-tailed or two-tailed.

Critical Region

The critical region (also called the rejection region) is the set of values of the test statistic for which we reject . The total area of the critical region equals the significance level .

For a normal distribution, the standard critical z-values are:

Test TypeSignificance Level Critical Value(s)
Two-tailed0.05
Two-tailed0.01
One-tailed (right)0.05
One-tailed (left)0.05
Note

If the calculated test statistic falls inside the critical region (beyond the critical value), we reject . If it falls outside the critical region, we fail to reject . Notice the language — we never "accept" .

Choosing Between the z-Test and the t-Test

The most fundamental decision in a one-sample mean test is whether to use a z-test or a t-test. This depends entirely on whether the population standard deviation is known.

When is known — use the z-test:

The test statistic is:

Where is the sample mean, is the hypothesised population mean, is the known population standard deviation, and is the sample size. This statistic follows a standard normal distribution .

When is unknown — use the t-test:

The test statistic is:

Where is the sample standard deviation (used to estimate ). This statistic follows a t-distribution with degrees of freedom.

Exam Tip

The decision rule is simple: known → z-test; unknown → t-test. This applies regardless of sample size. For large samples (), the t-distribution approximates the normal distribution closely, but you should still use the t-test if is unknown.

Warning

A very common mistake is choosing the test based on sample size alone. Sample size does not determine whether you use a z-test or t-test — knowledge of does.

Assumptions for the z-test:

  • Population follows a normal distribution (or is large enough for the Central Limit Theorem to apply)
  • is known
  • Data points are independent

Assumptions for the t-test:

  • Population follows a normal distribution (especially critical for small samples)
  • is unknown
  • Data points are independent
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